Youth Voters Are Suddenly Receiving New Attention
American Eclectic posts articles twice a month, on the 1st and 15th. This is the third year of publication; previously published articles can be found on my site.
August 15, 2024
Joe Biden was not doing well with young voters—and this was seen months before his debate with Donald Trump. A Harvard Youth Poll had him steadily dropping in approval by young voters. He started his Presidency (January 2021) with a 59 percent approval rating among this age cohort (usually defined as 18-29), and by mid-2023, his rating had fallen to 36 percent. What was telling was, at the same time, in the same poll, young voters approved of Democrats in Congress by 39 percent—3 percent higher than how they judged Biden.
The same poll showed that regarding several issues, young voters were leaning toward the Democratic position more so than toward Republican ones. For example, 57 percent supported automatic voter registration and 54 percent supported mailing ballots to every voter. In addition, this poll showed how young voters followed or did not follow the political party choice of their parents: 42 percent of these voters were willing to call themselves Republican if they grew up in a conservative household. In comparison, 60 percent were willing to call themselves Democrat if they grew up in a liberal household.
This poll indicated that highlighted developments or trends had been underway for at least a decade: addressing climate change and providing basic health insurance for all were supported more in 2023 than in 2013. For example, in 2013, 29 percent said that the government should do more to address climate change even if it adversely affected economic development; by 2023, 50 percent supported that position.
It would have appeared that Biden should have been doing well with this age cohort, but that was not the case. No doubt some of the reason was Biden’s age (although Trump is close in age), and the 2024 Presidential matchup looked like a repeat of the 2020 matchup. Studies show that younger voters are more likely to identify with younger politicians, and seeing Biden as old and appearing to get older before their eyes did not help him.
Following Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race, a surge in new voters has been seen. It will be interesting to see if this continues. Vote.org tracks voter registration efforts and reports that between July 21st, when Biden made his announcement, and August 1st, some 142,000 people had registered to vote, and 80 percent were between the ages of 18 and 34. Interestingly, Karmala Harris, the Democratic Presidential nominee, had not yet laid out any policies during these first few days after Biden backed out of the race. Yet, she had to have had an impact on the voter registration among young voters. A July 21st Politico article, the day Biden stepped aside, raised the issue of how her positions might differ from those of Biden. For example, the article concluded:
The former prosecutor often struggled to carve out a niche between centrists and skeptical progressives during her brief presidential run five years ago, proposing a multitrillion-dollar climate agenda and endorsing Bernie Sanders’ free-college plan but drawing criticism for what detractors labeled an unambitious student debt blueprint. She’s notably more comfortable than Biden in championing reproductive rights, and was earlier than he was to express skepticism on trade deals.
In other words, a voter registration surge—particularly among younger voters was not a reflection of support for particular Harris policies but maybe had a great deal to do with a belief that there was now a clear alternative to Trump. Harris did not need to express any clearly defined positions on domestic or foreign policy yet support for her over Biden increased. It goes without saying that to most Americans, it is known where the two political parties stand on many issues. Harris was receiving support when she had not clearly articulated her policies. An article by two well-known political scientists in 2012, before Trump was anything but a known television show host, addressed how to look at the Republican Party:
We have been studying Washington politics and Congress for more than 40 years, and never have we seen them this dysfunctional. In our past writings, we have criticized both parties when we believed it was warranted. Today, however, we have no choice but to acknowledge that the core of the problem lies with the Republican Party.
The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.
One study examining the shifts underway in American politics for many years defined where we are today as “Negative Partisanship.” The study addressed the 2016 election: “Voting based on hostility toward the opposing [political] party may have reached an all-time high in 2016, but that doesn’t mean we can expect it to diminish anytime soon.”
The us versus them mentality that penetrates current politics can run counter to a 24-year-old who, in a 2022 survey by the New York Times, said, “[I think about] what’s best for the collective versus the singular.”
Young voters supported Barack Obama when he won in 2008, but engagement in politics fell off between 2008 and 2016, going from 51.1 percent to 44 percent. If that 44 percent had been a few points higher, Hillary Clinton might have won in 2016. Clinton, a woman like Harris, could not generate enough enthusiasm to get that percentage up a few points. Then there was a surge in youth voter turnout to 55 percent in 2020, only .4 percent lower than the highest point in 1972, the first year 18 to 20-year-olds could vote. An increase in young voters helped Biden defeat Trump in 2020. Understandably, Democrats were concerned about the trends as young voters began losing interest in the Biden administration heading toward the 2024 election. It would be incorrect to say that this age cohort was souring on Biden administration policies and leaning toward the Republican positions; it would be more accurate to say they lost interest in Biden in particular.
With young voter turnout increasing from 44 percent in 2016 to 55 percent in 2020, this showed that the increase was motivated more by a willingness to vote against Trump than by a desire to show support for Biden.
Anxiety, fear, hope, and inspiration all play into reasons that motivate people, regardless of age, to vote. It is normal to wonder, study, and analyze whether young voters are motivated by the same reasons to vote that other age cohorts are motivated by. One study concluded that same-day registration increased young voter turnout more than other age cohorts. Early voting did not have the same effect as same-day registration on young voters. There are 21 states (and Washington, D.C.) that have same-day registration: Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are among them. North Dakota does not require registration to vote; voters must show up with “acceptable identification.” So, essentially, 22 states with same-day registration. Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are among the states collectively lumped together with others as the swing states that will decide the election. This study concluded:
One possibility for why SDR [same-day registration] may disproportionately increase youth turnout is that there is a greater proportion of compliers among young voters than among older voters. That is, because they face especially high registration costs (discussed below), young voters disproportionately rely on SDR. Conversely, because their costs of registration are lower, older voters are more likely to be always-voters (or never-voters) who will definitely vote (or not vote) in a given election, regardless of the presence of SDR.
This study contrasted the impact on voter turnout of same-day registration among different age cohorts by stating:
The probability of voting for 18–24-year olds increases by 6.9 (raw) percentage points under SDR, but only 2.5 percentage points for 55–64-year-olds and 4.9 percentage points for people 65 and over.
In addition to same-day registration, celebrity support (well, certain ones) might matter to young voters: The Taylor Swift impact might matter greatly. Megan Thee Stallion appeared at a Harris rally in Georgia recently. Again, are young voters motivated by factors different than other age cohorts? Certain celebrities might influence young voters in ways that Hulk Hogan’s appearing at the Republican National Convention to back up Trump might not matter.
Taylor Swift is credited with getting more than 30,000 people to register to vote in 2023 on National Voter Registration Day. If same-day registration is the biggest factor helping increase youth voter turnout, then one way to look at her impact on this election is that she has time to endorse Harris (the assumption is that she will) since her impact on same-day registration states could matter. But then there is the issue of other states without same-day registration, and an early endorsement of Harris could influence young voters in those states to register to vote. It is not just the impact of currently unregistered young potential voters who can matter in this election, but those who have recently turned 18. As the deputy director of an organization that studies young voters stated:
Over 8 million young adults have or will turn 18 between the midterm and presidential elections. It's critical that we make sure that young people, regardless of their zip code, race and ethnicity, education, and other experiences, have an entry point to way for their voice to be heard in our collective decision-making.
By staying home and not voting in 2016, young voters helped elect Donald Trump to become President. Non-voting was a form of voting in 2016. The 2024 election was turning off young voters when it was a rematch between Biden versus Trump. Suddenly, all that has changed.
Taylor Swift appears to be able to appeal to a cross-section of young voters, which is different than Trump, who appears to be aiming to appeal to a specific subset within the youth vote—male voters. One writer referred to the Trump outreach to youth voters as taking place through “edgelord influencers.” Trump did a 90-minute interview with Adin Ross, who basically gained fame through spending countless hours online. Defining Ross’s popularity came down to “it’s hard to explain his career trajectory in a way that doesn’t sound completely unhinged, but essentially the 23-year-old rose to fame by playing video games.” Trump aims for the youth vote the way he is going after other votes, by working to energize a core voter group rather than expand his reach to different voters. Swift might impact getting young voters to the polls; in the case of Ross, he can probably increase some new interest in Trump by young males (probably many of those following Ross are not old enough to vote). Still, even if his followers can vote, it is unclear if they are or will be registered to vote.
Oddly, in the case of Biden, his support base, and why he continued to look competitive against Trump, at least until their debate, was that older Americans favored him. In 2020, Trump got 51 percent of the 65 and older vote, but he was polling at 46 percent in early July. Suddenly, demographics matter differently. It was interesting to read remarks Jill Biden, the First Lady, gave regarding her husband when he was in the race:
The woman I am today is wiser, stronger, more insightful and more confident than I was all those years ago. Every line on my face has been earned by the furrowed brows of difficult decisions made. By the sun of countless roads traveled, by the sweet strain of deep laughter with the people I love. Age is a gift.
Any Harris message about Trump will be different. While she will need to keep the gains among older voters that Biden managed to attract, returning to the youth turnout percentage similar to 1972 (55.1 percent) and 2020 (55 percent) might be the key to victory.
Pennsylvania and the Youth Vote
Pennsylvania does not have same-day registration, but the youth vote can matter, and Pennsylvania is a swing state. When it was a rematch between Biden and Trump, a Chatham University, Pennsylvania political scientist summed up the feelings of many young voters:
The fact that they’re now looking at a rematch between two candidates that do not excite them has them very tuned out. They don’t feel like there’s something here for them.
In 2020, as noted above, 50 percent of young voters nationally voted, which helped Biden win; in Pennsylvania, 54 percent of those between 18 and 29 voted. Pennsylvania ranked 11th in terms of youth voter turnout in 2020. One student who helped register students when the race was Biden versus Trump said, “There’s a common sentiment of being not excited or not informed or engaged at all in the process. I think it’s especially true of my generation … being so numb to it at this point that it all feels political and insincere.”
Data on voter registration in Pennsylvania shows a confusing picture, at least for now. In the first three weeks since Biden backed out of the race (ending August 12th), Democrats have added 11,650 voters, Republicans 16,425, and Independents 11,871. A New York Times article addressed a focus group of independent voters the newspaper brought together in February; they concluded, “To a striking degree, most of the participants tilted toward Mr. Trump, even though they disliked his personality.” All these numbers from Pennsylvania include a range of age cohorts, so the youth voter is included along with others.
A Pew Research Center report places more independent voters as younger and those who identify as either Democrats or Republicans as older. In other words, there may be good news for Democrats emerging out of Pennsylvania regarding voter registration, hidden among the newly registered independent voters. However, another Pew Research Center report broke down political voter types and referred to the electorate in different political classifications. In this report, the “Young Outsiders,” and the “Next Generation Left,” stood out as ways to refer to segments within the youth age cohort. The Young Outsiders were described as having conservative views on government but not on social issues, while those in the Next Generation Left were described as liberal on social issues. Both of these groups each made up 11 percent of the politically active in the youth age cohort. The two Pew reports, taken together, paint a difficult-to-define picture of youth voters and their attitudes. The Times focus group may indicate any change in attitude in the focus group as more articles are written. Some insight, regarding independent voters, might be gleaned from the New Hampshire Republican primary: independent voters could vote in the Republican primary, and 70 percent voted for Nikki Haley, not Trump. Furthermore, nationally, the “dual haters” who wanted neither Biden nor Trump were 23 percent of the electorate. Suddenly, the choice is different. If independent voters are, generally speaking, younger than Democratic or Republican voters, focusing on them may provide some insight into how younger voters will lean in this election.
Pennsylvania updates its voter registration weekly by county, so it may take another month to develop a clearer picture of how Biden’s dropping out of the race and being replaced by Harris has impacted the Electoral College sweepstakes. Regarding Taylor Swift, the earlier she endorses Harris (assuming she will), the more she can help Harris’s position in Pennsylvania.
Notes
“Age, generational cohorts and party identification,” Pew Research Center (April 9, 2024): https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/age-generational-cohorts-and-party-identification/
Alan Abramowitz, The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump (New Haven, Yale University Press, 2018)
“Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology,” Pew Research Center (June 26, 2014: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/26/the-political-typology-beyond-red-vs-blue/
Page Gardner and Stanley Greenberg, “They Don’t Want Trump OR Biden. Here’s How They Still Can Elect Biden,” The American Prospect (March 15, 2024): https://prospect.org/politics/2024-03-15-they-dont-want-trump-or-biden-dual-haters/
Jacob Grumbach and Charlotte Hill, “Rock the Registration: Same Day Registration Increases Turnout of Young Voters,” Journal of Politics, Vol. 84, No. 1 (January 2022): https:// www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/714776
Harvard Youth Poll, 45th Edition (Spring 2023): https:// iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/45th-edition-spring-2023
Scott Klug, “What Surging Numbers of Independent Voters Could Mean for This Fall’s Election,” U.S. News & World Report (April 4, 2024): https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-04/what-surging-numbers-of-independent-voters-could-mean-for-this-falls-election
Arwa Mahdawi, “‘Edgelords’ and ‘butt-sniffers’: will Trump’s tour of hyper-masculine podcasts win over young men?” The Guardian (August 8, 2024): https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/08/donald-trump-adin-ross-young-men
Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein, “Opinion: Let’s Just Say It: The Republicans are the problem,” Washington Post (April 27, 2012): https:// www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/lets-just-say-it-the-republicans-are-the-problem/2012/04/27/gIQAxCVUlT_story.html
Carly Olson, “Here are the states that allow same-day registration,” New York Times (November 8, 2022): https:// www.nytimes.com/2022/11/08/us/politics/voter-registration-today-states.html
Pennsylvania Voter Registration data (easier to use if you download it in Excel): https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pa.gov%2Fcontent%2Fdam%2Fcopapwp-pagov%2Fen%2Fdos%2Fresources%2Fvoting-and-elections%2Fvoting-and-election-statistics%2Fcurrentvotestats.xls&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Politico Staff, “How Karmala Harris’ platform could differ from Joe Biden’s,” Politico (July 21, 2024): https:// www.politico.com/interactives/2024/kamala-harris-joe-biden-platforms/
Barbara Rodriguez, “Needed: more poll workers,” (August 1, 2024): https:// 19thnews.org/2024/08/national-poll-worker-recruitment-day-surge-voter-registration/
Arlette Saenz, “Jill Biden pitches the benefits of age on the campaign trail,” CNN (June 14, 2024): https:// www.yahoo.com/news/jill-biden-pitches-benefits-age-100017472.html
Ken Thomas and Dante Chinni, “Biden’s Secret Weapon Against Trump: Older Voters,” Wall Street Journal (July 2, 2024): https:// www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-s-secret-weapon-against-trump-older-voters/ar-BB1omcLd?ocid=BingNewsVerp
Karen Weintraub, “The election just got a lot more interesting. It’s inspiring young voters to register,” USA Today (July 26, 2024): https:// www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-election-just-got-a-lot-more-interesting-its-inspiring-young-voters-to-register/ar-BB1qH8dY?ocid=BingNewsSerp
“What’s on the Minds of 12 Young Voters,” New York Times (October 21, 2022): https:// www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/us/politics/young-voters.html
“Why This Group of Undecided Independent Voters Is Leaning Toward Trump,” New York Times (February 13, 2024): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/13/opinion/independents-biden-focus-group.html
Charlie Wolfson, “Young voters helped decide the 2020 election in Pa. Will they turn out for a Biden-Trump rematch?” Pennsylvania Capital-Star (April 19, 2024): https://penncapital-star.com/election-2024/young-voters-helped-decide-the-2020-election-in-pa-will-they-turn-out-for-a-biden-trump-rematch/
“Youth voter turnout in presidential elections in the United States from 1972 to 2020,” Statista (July 5, 2024): https:// www.statista.com/statistics/984745/youth-voter-turnout-presidential-elections-us/