The Iowa Republican Caucus, Trump versus Whoever: What Needs to Be Done

January 15, 2023

One Republican congressman, regarding the 2024 Republican caucus/primary season said, “I certainly hope we have a crowded field.”  That may almost guarantee a Donald Trump win in the Iowa caucus and increase his chances of winning the Republican nomination to run for President, again.  In 2016, there were eleven Republicans who each got more than 1,500 votes statewide.  The total number of Republican caucus participants was slightly less than 187,000.  Trump came in second (45,427) behind Ted Cruz (51,666).  Cruz made a good point about Trump and the media, “What I know is that the media was involved in a lovefest, giving Donald Trump two billion dollars in free media.”  The dollar amount can be bandied about, but he had a point.

There were some patterns that showed early signs of the Trump base that still support him today, despite absolutely anything he continues to do or say, or who he has over for dinner:  He received more support from those without a college degree than those with one and he received more support from rural areas than urban or suburban areas.  Interestingly, non-Evangelical caucus participants supported him more than Evangelical ones, which indicates the shift that has taken place where Evangelicals tend to show a continued support for him, which was not necessarily there before he became the party's Presidential candidate. One study placed the Evangelical support for Trump at 80 percent in the 2016 election and about the same in 2020.

Here we are in January 2023 and for all intense purposes, the presidential election season is around the corner.  Sure, Iowa, the first caucus in the country and New Hampshire, the first primary in the country, are both slightly more than a year away, but the media saturation will only intensify as this year unfolds.  The media anticipation index will be like a kid counting down the days to Christmas: Polls, straw polls (assuming we will see those), visits to Iowa throughout this year by Trump as well as lesser mortals (Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, Governor Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Mike Pence)—I’m just assuming several if not all will be in the mix and their appearances will be reported with each cupcake they eat, each local service organization meeting they attend, each Girl Scout or Boy Scout troop gathering they greet.

How exactly would any other Republican candidate break through to caucus participants?  Senator Mitt Romney (R, UT) saying, “I won’t support Donald Trump for president or anything else.  I think he’s hurt our party and I think he continues to do so” sounds like a candle in the wind (to borrow Elton John’s line).  Careful, nuanced statements by most Republicans expressing some attempt to distance themselves from Trump, will not be enough to help potential Trump rivals.  Will Republicans in Congress or Republican governors be campaigning with Trump rivals to help them gain some toehold among the caucus goers?

Certainly, the fear is Trump might decide to really throw a monkey wrench into the Republican march to get a candidate for 2024. In August 2015, at the first Republican debate among candidates trying to win their party's primaries and caucuses to run for President, Trump refused to say he would support the party's candidate, if it were not him. He seemed to later say he would support whoever it was but in March 2026, once again said he might not support the party's candidate, if it were not him. Republicans speaking like Romney about Trump, might lead Trump to do his worst to undermine whoever the Republican candidate is, if it is not him. Republicans are in a tight spot: Do not piss off Trump but still support other candidates and do so without, again, pissing off Trump.

It is important to point out that this is an essay addressing the participants in the Republican caucus. The fight over Representative Kevin McCarthy (R, CA) becoming Speaker of the House indicated that Republicans in the House of Representatives were willing to not listen to Trump when he said they should back McCarthy. Some political analysts saw that as indicating Republicans were moving on from Trump. Republican caucus participants, however, and Republican members of Congress are in two different universes. The two different universes could be seen when the New York Times brought back twelve Republican voters as a focus group. The January 6th committee hearings that recently ended in the House of Representatives actually increased sympathy for Trump among some of these voters: 10 of the 12 liked that Trump was running for President again.

Caucuses are difficult to attend, particularly in a state with bitter cold winters.  I attended both Democratic and Republican caucuses between 2000 and 2016 and the weather felt brutal.  I admire people who manage to see it as their civic or party duty to get up and go despite the bitter cold.  Add to that the amount of time that it takes to complete the evening’s work and that adds a few hours.  Republican caucuses were more organized than Democratic ones, with representatives for the different candidates allowed to make speeches (usually around three minutes) before the voting begins.  A Democratic caucus was enjoyable to see as people stood on chairs and motioned the crowd to gather around them if they supported their candidate.  Then the fun began as the counting took place which meant counting who was gathered around which chair.

One study questioned whether the caucus was deliberative democracy, after all a town meeting feel to the whole affair tends to permeate the gathering.  This survey of caucus participants concluded that men were more likely than women to vocally push their opinions, so much for deliberative democracy.  If Trump’s support among women began to fall off between 2016 and 2020 then will aggressively vocal male supporters try to force their choice upon caucuses. A National Public Radio (NPR) poll taken in August 2020, three months before the Presidential election showed 66 percent of suburban female voters disapproved of Trump.  If the Iowa Republican caucus turnout is small, the 187,000 Republican caucus participants represented slightly less than 21 percent of the Iowa vote for Trump in the 2020 Presidential election, if male participants outnumber female ones, if Evangelical participants are disproportionately high compared to both the state and the country, Trump stands a good chance of winning.

I don’t think pragmatic thinking can be expected to take hold among Iowa caucus participants and they will be thinking strategically where the idea is to pick a winner of their state’s caucus who stands a good chance of winning the Presidential election in 2024.  The canary in the mineshaft for Republicans might be Lauren Boebert’s win in her Congressional re-election race in 2022 in Colorado.  In 2020, Boebert won her Congressional seat by about 6 percent over her Democratic rival and it seemed safe to say that in 2022 she would easily coast to victory.  Colorado’s Independent Redistricting Commission map agreed to in September 2021, made some slight changes to her Congressional district and the expectation was that she should have won in 2022 by 9 percent.  In addition, compared to the proportion of Democratic voters who showed up to vote in 2022 statewide, in her district a lower percentage of Democrats voted.  The fact that in the end she won re-election by give-or-take 500 votes, indicated that she lost support among Republican voters.  No doubt many of those Republicans were sick and tired of her groveling at the feet of Donald Trump, an out-of-work ex-President who constantly whined about losing in 2020. Having just said this about Boebert and her almost lost re-election, I am not sure Republicans in Iowa will take her win and understand what that might mean if Trump gets the Republican nomination again. We might assume that Trump will turn off a large number of voters in the general election by his obnoxious style. Trying to reach out and expand his support among a cross section of voters has never been his forte.

An Iowa poll last July, had 57 percent of Iowa Republicans wanting Trump to run again. This was taken before the disappointing results from the Congressional election and before Trump formally announced he was running again. This poll showed men more than women wanting Trump to run again, although while it looked at Iowa voters overall, it did not break down Republican voters by sex. His appearance in Iowa in November, just ahead of the Congressional elections, indicated that the 2020 election loss was still his obsession as he said in Sioux City, “Your favorite President got screwed.” We will have to see how a campaign theme primarily focused on the 2020 election plays with caucus participants. Although Trump has raised some odd issues for a 2024 Presidential run, such proposing to execute drug dealers. The Iowa Republican Party approved a motion that the party will remain neutral in 2024 caucuses, endorsing no candidate. The Iowa Republican chairman said this had nothing to do with Trump, maybe so but Trump might not see it that way.

A YouGovAmerica continuous poll since January 2017, Trump’s first month as President, shows a complicated picture of Trump’s favorable/unfavorable ratings. He began his Presidency at under 50 percent (45.5 percent) favorable ratings, by the time of the November 2020 election, he had only fallen slightly to 43.9 percent. Since being out of office, his ratings fluctuated mostly in the low to mid-forties, occasionally dipping into the thirties. On January 10th, his favorable ratings hovered around 41 percent. There is no steady downhill that points to a bad campaign future for Trump, just unpredictability. DeSantis can be seen in some polls being favored over Trump by Republicans, but, at this point, DeSantis is an unknown on the campaign trail: Being governor of Florida is one thing, running in all the different state campaigns needed to win enough delegates to the Republican National Convention is something else.

The DeSantis approach toward the media when running for re-election as governor of Florida was to only talk with favorably inclined media sources who, basically fed him milk and cookies. Trying that same approach when wanting to run for President may cause him problems. I suspect that what would emerge is a feeling he was hiding which other Republican candidates vying for the same thing might highlight.

DeSantis seemed to receive a significant increase in one poll, associated with the November Congressional elections, going from 26 percent to 33 percent, but he dropped back down to 30 percent after Trump announced he was running again. Trump, on the other hand, did not seem to receive any increase after announcing. Therefore, reading the tea leaves at this point provides nothing that points toward any smooth sailing forward for anyone. Furthermore, although Republicans did not do as well as seemed to be widely predicted they would in the recent Congressional elections, put aside the general elections and just look at the Republican primaries: 82 percent of the non-incumbents Trump supported won their primary races, which indicated a party base who still support him. In the Phoenix area, it was normal to see Republican signs with pick-a-candidate, it does not matter who, having “Trump endorsed” prominently displayed on their campaign posters.

So, what is needed to somehow unstack the desk against Trump in the Iowa caucus?

1—Fox News plays a big role.  One study noted that among Republicans in Iowa, a significant percentage get their news from Fox, unlike Democrats who receive their news from more diversified sources.  How Fox handles Trump this time around and how they address the other candidates whoever they are, can matter.  If Mike Pompeo is suddenly seen as the bright light on the hill, appearing frequently on various Fox shows, that may help him gain some needed recognition.  The same can be said for other candidates.  In other words, Fox plays a role in preventing Trump from sucking the oxygen out of the room. Appearances on Fox News programs might matter more than whatever advertising dollars are spent by Trump rivals. If DeSantis throws his hat in the ring, I am sure he will be ever-present on Fox. Expect Trump to show his thin skin and fault Fox for giving too much cable time to DeSantis and any of his rivals.

2—Republican members of Congress and Republican governors need to step up to the plate.  Watching Representative Kevin McCarthy (R, CA) go through contortions trying to say something without saying anything when Trump demonstrated in November 2022 that his political instincts were in the garbage when he had dinner with Kanye West (OK, he has some other name now, like I care) and Nick Fuentes, two antisemitic screwballs, indicates that fear and trepidation were his guiding lights, not courage. How do established, nationally recognized Republicans campaign with anyone-but-Trump?  They have to know Trump will attack them and make their next elections miserable, but they need to step up and sound like Romney in how he stated his opposition to Trump. I do not think, however, I have a lot of hope that many Republicans have the backbone to stand up and be counted. What I expect is that somewhere down the road, several years after Trump is safely in the rearview mirror then they will step up and lie through their teeth and say they really stood up when it mattered.

I do think it is important that candidates running around Iowa have support from other Republicans. It would look rather strange if all Republicans do is sound like McCarthy trying to say something without saying much of anything. Imagine if the Republican congressman got his way and there is a “crowded field” and this field has no active, passionate Republican office holders but just a bundle of people trying to sort of, maybe show some distant support, all with the intention of trying to stay on Trump's good side (as if he has one) while saying something pleasant about the other candidates in the race.

3—Republican female caucus participants will need to speak up and say what they feel (assuming they oppose Trump).  What polls might say about where male and female caucus participants stand is cute but what is really needed is that women planning to be caucus participants start to vocally express what they feel before the caucus. Polls will not matter when a caucus meeting begins, organizing and knowing that there is support from other women present at caucuses throughout the state will matter.  Perhaps creating temporary organizations that are anyone-but-Trump in purpose are needed.

One thought to consider regarding Trump and women is that if he takes into consideration that women are not enthusiastic supporters, he might start floating the idea of a woman as his Vice-Presidential candidate. If he really feels the heat, he might even announce who his Vice-Presidential candidate would be before the Iowa caucus. This is just something to consider if he realizes that there is any mounting opposition by female caucus participants to his march to get the nomination to run again.

What happens in Iowa is important to spelling the end for Trump. Even if he does not get the nomination to run for President again in 2024, if he wins in Iowa or even comes in second, he will be that persistent menace who will not go away. In other words what needs to happen in Iowa is the type of wakeup call that happened to Boebert in her re-election claw-your-way-to-the-finish-line-win in Colorado, although Trump has to take a devastating turn for the worst. Republicans have to look closely at Boebert's win and how her fawning over Trump turned off normal Republican voters.

One of the problems that emerged since Trump hit the political scene big-time beginning in 2015, is that we constantly hear about the Trump base and while they appear to be maybe, somewhere, guesstimating around a third of the Republican voters, how do other candidates convince this glob of people that Trump can lose-again.

What I wrote here is not necessarily aimed at helping the Republicans win the White House in 2024, it is aimed at Trump not getting the nomination. I also hope Joe Biden does not run again.  Sure, he will be old, but then Trump is old too. If Trump gets the Republican nomination again, I expect he will act vengeful seeing his campaign as a rectification for his 2020 loss and his campaign will get the crazies who support him to come out of the woodwork only to do more to poison a political atmosphere that is already getting too toxic.

Notes

Kristen Soltis Anderson, moderator, “Skeptical about Trump ‘24? These 12 Republicans Will Set You Straight,” New York Times (January 12, 2023): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/01/12/opinion/republican-focus-group.html

David Drucker, “Iowa GOP declares neutrality in 2024 caucuses,” Washington Examiner (December 12, 2022): https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/iowa-gop-declares-neutrality-in-2024-caucuses/ar-AA15cmud

David de la Fuente, “How the Near Death of Caucuses Supercharged Voter Turnout,” Third Way (October 26, 2020): https://www.thirdway.org/memo/how-the-near-death-of-caucuses-supercharged-voter-turnout

Ella Nilsen and Tara Golshan, “The extremely small number of votes it takes to win the Iowa caucuses, explained,” Vox (February 3, 2020): https://www.vox.com/2019/11/13/20953263/what-it-takes-to-win-iowa-caucuses-explained

Thomas Patterson, “Voter Participation in Presidential Primaries and Caucuses,” (a revised version of a chapter in an edited book): https://journalistsresource.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Voter-Turnout-in-Presidential-Primaries-and-Caucuses_Patterson.pdf

Brianne Pfannenstiel, “Iowa Poll: Should Trump run for president in 2024? Most Iowa Republican say yes,” The Palm Beach Post (July 21, 2022): https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/07/21/donald-trump-approval-rating-iowa-poll-presidential-election-2024/10062078002/

Nathaniel Rakish, “Why Trump is Favored to win the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary,” FiveThirtyEight (November 15, 2022): https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-2024-president/

Ronald Rapoport, Walter Stone and Alan Abramowitz, “Sex and the Caucus Participant: The Gender Gap and Presidential Nominations,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 34, No. 3 (August 1990): https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111396

Donald Trump Favorability, YouGovAmerica: https//today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability

John Wihbey and Denise-Marie Ordway, “Voter participation in presidential caucuses,” The Journalist’s Resource: Informing the news (April 18, 2016): https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/voter-participation-in-presidential-primaries-and-caucuses/

Eli Yokley, “Trump gets no boost After 2024 Campaign Launch,” Morning Consult Home (November 23, 2022): https://morningconsult.com/2022/11/23/trump-2024-primary-support-dips/

Melanie Zanona and Manu Raju, “GOP begins to look for new 2024 candidates amid fears over Trump,” CNN politics (July 24, 2022): https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/republican-primary-2024-candidates/index.html