The 2020 Election was Not Unusual: But Despite That, What Might Happen in 2024 and Where It Could Lead

American Eclectic

September 15, 2022

Before the 2020 election, the Democrats had 235 seats in the House of Representatives, after the election they had 222, a drop of 13.  Setting up certain conditions helps to see the relationship of House races to the Presidential election and also provides another perspective on Presidential elections:

1—A political party wins the White House, and the other party was just in control

2—The party winning the White House, already had control of the House of Representatives but lost seats in that election and still remained the majority party.

--In 1960, John Kennedy won the Presidency, a Republican was in the White House, Dwight Eisenhower could not run again.  The Democrats already had control of the House of Representatives but lost 19 seats in the 1960 election and still remained the majority party

--In 1992, Bill Clinton won the Presidency, a Republican was in the White House, George H.W. Bush lost a second term chance.  The Democrats already had control of the House of Representatives but lost 9 seats in the 1992 election and still remained the majority party.

--In 2000, George W. Bush won the Presidency, a Democrat was in the White House, Bill Clinton could not run again.  The Republicans already had control of the House of Representatives but lost 2 seats in the 2000 election and still remained the majority party.

--In 2016, Donald Trump won the Presidency, a Democrat was in the White House, Barack Obama could not run again.  The Republicans already had control of the House of Representatives but lost 6 seats in the 2016 election and still remained the majority party.

--In 2020, Joe Biden won the Presidency, a Republican was in the White House, Donald Trump lost a second term chance.  The Democrats already had control of the House of Representatives but lost 13 seats in the 2020 election and still remained the majority party.

Five elections, three with an open race since the incumbent could not run for re-election.  The 1992 and 2020 elections have something in common, Republican incumbents in the White House both lose, and the Democrats were already the majority party in the House of Representatives and in both elections, they lost seats but kept control.

There are always attempts to try to learn something, almost anything, from previous elections.  There is another election that was not listed above: Jimmy Carter winning in 1976.  Carter won the Presidency with a Republican in the White House: Gerald Ford lost a chance to win a term as President (he became President when Richard Nixon resigned over Watergate in 1974). The Democrats already had control of the House of Representatives and gained one seat. This was an unusual election, to some extent, Republicans in Congress might have been paying the price for the stain of Watergate, which might have accounted for the Democrats not losing but gaining one seat in the House of Representatives.

Ford might have been seen as weak going into the 1976 election since Ronald Reagan came close to taking the Republican nomination away from him.  Choosing Nelson Rockefeller as his Vice-Presidential after becoming President did not sit well with conservatives. The term “Rockefeller Republicans” was used to address a moderate wing of the Republican Party. In the 1976 election, Ford chose Bob Dole, the Kansas Senator, as his running mate but damage had already been done to party unity.  Imagine if Republicans had been united behind Ford and Reagan had decided not to challenge him.  If a few thousand votes had shifted toward Ford in Mississippi and Ohio, Ford might have won the Presidency—and Reagan might never have gotten the opportunity to run for the Presidency.

So, 1976 was unusual.  But in looking at the other races addressed above, what the 2020 election shows in a broader way is that it was not that unusual—there were previous elections where the party winning the Presidency and already having control of the House of Representatives lost seats and still remained the majority party.

Several odd if not foolish convoluted studies, or maybe calling them studies is too professional a word for what is going on, try to show that Trump won in 2020: He did not.  There is no detailed statistical study I’m doing here.  There is no convoluted mathematical equation I’m using to raise suspicion.  I’m not looking for odd truck drops in the middle of the night or rice paper (as though there were votes from China) or ballots not folded properly.  I know it won’t matter to the true believers.  Eric Hoffer in his book, The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements, wrote, “The act of self-denial seems to confer on us the right to be harsh and merciless toward others.”  The true believers unwavering in their faith that the election was stolen fit this quote.  The words “harsh and merciless” concern me since they indicate that elevated levels of anger, distrust, rage have the potential to spill over in the 2024 election—it might not matter whether Trump is or is not the Republican Presidential candidate.  Maybe claims of voter fraud might pop up in the Congressional elections of 2022 on a lesser level, but the next Presidential election seems more likely to have the potential for higher levels of anger leading to violence.  Four years of relentless anger and outrage can take its toll.  Add in Fox News, Newsmax, the One American News Network, late night talk radio (where the hosts of some shows act as though Trump is still President), various presentations around the country and a normal election filled with reasonable passion becomes something more.

Certainly, there are rumblings that elections, a variety of them, or more specifically the counting of the votes and certifying an election, any election, are leading to problems.  In New Mexico in June, county commissioners in Otero County would not certify a local election citing Dominion voting systems as their concern. A report on what went on in Otero County, as well as two other New Mexico counties stated:

Two of three county commissioners relented and certified the primary results under an order from the New Mexico Supreme Court and pushback from state election regulators and prosecutors.

Outbursts from angry crowds were on display in Torrance and Sandoval counties as local boards certified their local primary results. Those county commissions later approved resolutions that highlight dissatisfaction with election procedures.

In the case of Otero County, one of the commissioners (Couy Griffen) said he had plans to “Hold the line” which implied that he was going to resist certifying the election results and whatever else he had in mind. In September, A New Mexico judge ruled that Griffen had to be removed from office as a county commissioner because of his participation in the January 6th attack on the Capitol. The judge ruled that Griffen by participating in an “insurrection” was in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment which prohibits anyone from engaging in such activity from holding public office.

In Yavapai County, Arizona, two officials involved in the running of elections stepped down with one citing “nastiness.”  One of the election officials who stepped down made an interesting statement, which indicated her bewilderment at what she had been going through, she said:

A lot of it is the nastiness that we have dealt with.  I’m a Republican recorder living in a Republican county where the candidate that they wanted to win won by 2-to-1 in this county and [yet I’m] still getting grief, and so is my staff. 

In Vermont, a man issued a threat to state election officials, “This might be a good time to put a f‑‑‑‑‑‑ pistol in your f‑‑‑‑‑‑ mouth and pull the trigger.  Your days are f‑‑‑‑‑‑ numbered.” An audit, conducted by a firm called Cyber Ninjas, basically achieved nothing in Arizona. Biden still won in Arizona and Cyber Ninjas found 360 more votes for him.  But a Republican state senator made a good point, “They wasted nearly $6 million to tell us what we already knew, meanwhile exacerbating an already unhealthy political environment.” A Utah state representative who traveled to Arizona to see the Cyber Ninjas audit, however, wanted the same type of audit in Utah. He wanted an audit of Salt Lake County which Biden won by more than 11 percentage points, despite Trump winning Utah by more than 20 points. In Philadelphia in July 2021, a group based in Texas wearing face coverings (Patriot Front) described as white supremacists protested and clashed with pedestrians as they chanted, “The election was stolen.” This occurred shortly before a visit to the city by Jill Biden. The U.S. Election Integrity Plan, which is anything but that, has people associated with it pushing conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. One individual connected with this plan stated, “I think if you’re involved in election fraud you deserve to hang.” At a meeting in Colorado, he was loudly cheered for his comment. Police were called when a “brawl” or “heated exchange” (depending on who was doing the describing) broke out involving forty people during the last few hours of voting in the Missouri Senate primary election last month at a voting location. In either case, the director of the St. Louis County Board of Elections said, “This is unusual. We don’t normally have stuff like this.” Furthermore, on the same day also in Missouri a death threat was made by a voter to a candidate. Legislation has been introduced in several states and has been passed in a few, aimed at increasing the criminal charges against those that threaten election officials.

In looking at the 1960 election where Democrats lost 19 seats, the 1992 election where they lost 9 seats, and the 2020 election where they lost 13 seats, we are supposed to believe that the Presidential election was stolen but, I guess, we are supposed to also believe the Democrats tried to “cover their tracks” by deciding to lose 13 House seats.  The 13 lost races are somewhat close to the midpoint between the 1960 and 1992 losses.  True believers will never stop and take a serious thoughtful look, but maybe many more will.  

My belief is that what America needs is something close to the Australian voting system where basically everyone votes, its compulsory. Since mandatory voting was introduced in the 1920s, voter turnout has averaged over 90 percent. In the 2020 Presidential election, just under 67 percent of the voting-eligible population voted. Ironically, with Republicans, beyond just Trump, pushing the stolen election theme and never letting go, if violence happens in 2024, Republicans who seem to want controlled and restricted voting may open the door to serious considerations for the Australian system because of any violence.  By itself, introducing the Australian system to America will not eliminate voter fraud beliefs, true believers won’t be convinced of anything.  But normal people-and they exist and there are many, may feel good that something was done that seems meaningful and not based on empty talk. 

Paul Weyrich, a major co-organizer of right-wing organizations such as the Moral Majority, the American Legislative Exchange Council and co-founder of the Heritage Foundation stated:

I don’t want everyone to vote.  Elections are not won by a majority of the people from the beginning of our country, and they are not now.  As a matter of fact, our leverage in elections, quite candidly, goes up as the voting populous goes down.

Trump, with his never-ending voter fraud claims and his push that something needs to be done about it, might just, ironically, undo Weyrich’s wish.

Notes

Bob Brigham, “Arizona GOP election official quits over threats from ‘nasty’ Trump supporters: report,” Rawstory (July 2, 2022): https://rawstory.com/gop-election-official/

Christine Byers, “Poll workers report brawl, death threat, candidates trying to run over each other outside St. Louis County voting centers,” 5 On Your Side (August 3, 2022): https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local/brawls-death-threat-candidates-trying-to-run-over-each-other-st-louis-county-primary-election/63-feb7e53d-4f87-4894-8854-d6b80cf69c15

“Group Described as White Supremacists March in Philadelphia,” 3CBSPhilly (July 5, 2021): https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2021/07/05/group-described-as-white-supremacists-march-in-philadelphia/

Morgan Lee, “New Mexico certifies primary election results after standoff,” AP (June 28, 2022): https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-new-mexico-voting-presidential-69ca2e58b0c305741a027ab024ad8c46

Andy Lyman, “State Supreme Court orders Otero County Commission to certify primary election results,” The NM Political Report (June 16, 2022): https:// nmpoliticalreport.com/2022/06/16/otero-county-commission-ordered-to-certify-primary-election-results/

Miles Parks, Bente Birkeland, “The election denial movement is now going door to door,” Maine Public Radio (July 21, 2022): https://www.mainepublic.org/npr-news/2022-07-21/the-election-denial-movement-is-now-going-door-to-door

Lisa Rathke and Christina A. Cassidy, “States seek to protect election workers amid growing threats,” WISHTV.com8: https://www.wishtv.com/news/politics/states-seek-to-protect-election-workers-amid-growing-threats/

Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American (September 6, 2022): https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/september-6-2022

Bryan Schott, “After Utah legislator visits Arizona to observe election audit, he says Salt Lake County needs one,” The Salt Lake Tribune (June 15, 2021): https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2021/06/15/after-utah-legislator/

Linda So and Jason Szep, “Reuters unmarks Trump supporters who terrified U.S. election officials,” Reuters (November 9, 2021): https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-election-threats

‘Voter turnout-previous events,” Australian Electoral Commission (July 20, 2022): https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/voter-turnout.htm

Reid Wilson, “Five takeaways from Arizona’s audit results,” The Hill (September 24, 2021): https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/573888-five-takeaways-from-the-arizonas-audit-results/