How Should We Look at Urban Warfare That Will Come as Israel Prepares to Move Against Hamas in the Gaza Strip
American Eclectic posts articles twice a month, on the 1st and 15th. This is the second year of publication; previously published articles can be found on my site.
October 15, 2023
The war that Hamas started with Israel will shortly be entering a new phase: urban warfare. With some 300,000 troops getting ready for ground operations beginning in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, I assume that the plan is to go block by block conducting urban warfare with the aim to eliminate Hamas as a presence in the entire 27 miles of Gaza. Israel is telling Palestinians in the north to take refuge in the southern part of this strip of land. I am not sure how Israel will know that only refugees with no affiliation to Hamas are heading south. We can assume that after whatever operations are conducted in the northern part of Gaza, a vaguely defined area for now, then the Israeli army will turn and head south. If the goal is the elimination of Hamas, then all of Gaza is a war zone. There are 42,600 people per square mile, which makes it one of the most densely populated areas on the planet. By comparison, New Jersey is America’s most densely populated state with 1,300 people per square mile. A United States Army Command and Staff School monograph that addressed urban warfare started off by stating, “It is axiomatic in the military community that operations in an urban environment should be avoided if at all possible, given the costs they exact in time, personnel, casualties, and materiel.” If several months or more of planning went into the Hamas assault on Israel, we should assume that they might have anticipated a response along the lines of block-by-block fighting and developed some preparations for what is to come.
How should we look at developments that will, no doubt, unfold over the next several months. First, I think the problem will be easily identifying who exactly is a member of Hamas and that will continually confront Israel. Egypt has increased its security force along the point (Rafah Border) where refugees would cross between Gaza and Egypt. Egypt is no friend of Hamas since it had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Hosni Mubarak’s presidency ended in 2011 because of the Arab Spring that sweep through parts of the Middle East with the aim to change governments in several countries. Hamas was created in 1987 as a spin-off of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Brotherhood was a banned Egyptian Islamist organization and both organizations were hated by Mubarak. With Mubarak out Mohamad Morsi came to power in 2012 only to be removed in a military coup a year later. Morsi was a member of the Freedom and Justice Party, but he had ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. There seemed to be some hope initially that the Brotherhood would become more moderate in its outlook and policies with Morsi in power but that was not the case. A 2016 report issued by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Commons in Great Britain, questioned whether the Muslim Brotherhood was moderating its attitude and views on Egyptian politics and society and concluded that there were fears that if Morsi stayed in power, he would have moved in the direction of more conservative policies being implemented with Sharia Law setting the tone for strict interpretations of religious law. Hamas saw itself as the Palestinian extension of the Brotherhood. The report stated, “the Hamas founding charter claims they are the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Muslim Brotherhood treat them as such.” In 2017, Hamas publicly cut its ties with the Brotherhood, but this was not taken seriously and was seen more of as a public relations stunt.
Why all this focus here on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and how does it help to understand a problem that Israel will face as it begins what has to be seen as prolonged urban warfare in the Gaza strip. Egypt does not want to open its border with Gaza to allow refugees into the country because it cannot tell who exactly a refugee is distinctly different from a member of Hamas. Egypt does not want to do anything to have a refugee influx add new members to the Muslim Brotherhood, which could happen from a huge increase of Palestinian refugees. If Egypt knows that they cannot tell a member of Hamas from an ordinary Palestinian, I am sure that Israel will face the same problem as they conduct warfare to eliminate Hamas.
Second, the casualties for Israel will change from their civilians being killed (and some 27 Americans) to Israeli military casualties with urban warfare. Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) which were used against American troops in the fighting during the Iraq War, may become a feature of the fighting that is expected to begin soon. If the number of dead and injured increases, the war goal of eliminating Hamas, which can seem somewhat clearly defined from listening to members of the Israeli government talk now, might become more difficult to easily define as the fighting, the deaths, the injured only increases. The U.S. Army Command and Staff School study on urban warfare stated, “When defending, a commander often located his forces in an urban area because of his inferior capability and the increase in combat power provided by the inherent defensive qualities of the urban terrain.” Hamas is seen as the inferior force, but its defensive position may lead to the Israeli army destroying buildings as it works its way through the northern part of Gaza. What will be left standing after northern operations are concluded? The refugees told to head south; will they be expected to return to something that looks like livable quarters after the Israeli government feels confident, they have achieved what they want to achieve in their northern operations. The Army study noted that in 1683, a Christian force of approximately 20,000 as part of the Holy Roman Empire, took up defensive positions in Vienna and waited for the Ottoman Empire force of 75,000 to come to them. The Christian force held out for two months and was only defeated after the Ottoman army was supplemented by an additional force of 20,000 that joined the fight. In other words, assuming this will be a relatively quick operation might be too much to expect.
Israel has an Urban Warfare Training Center (UWTC) which has a created city of over 600 buildings. The Center stresses that one of its goals is to keep the number of civilian casualties down. Unfortunately, there an adage that goes, “after the first shot is fired, all battle plans go out the window.” If Hamas was in the preparation stage for some months before their attack on Israel, and assuming they had been preparing for a ground offensive against their defensive positions, do they also have an understanding of the type of training that this center prepared Israeli soldiers to expect. Any understanding they have of how Israel trains may give them a slight edge initially as they await an offensive. Higher than expected Israeli casualties could come with the first wave of offensive operations as the goal of eliminating Hamas begins within the near future. In the Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956, their casualties were incredibly high, but they learned from their mistakes in putting down that rebellion so when they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968, only 96 soldiers were killed. We will have to wait and see how well prepared the Israeli army is to conduct urban warfare on a scale different than previous fighting. Israeli commanders are probably anticipating a certain level of troops killed and wounded. If the fighting changes those forecasts or predictions, then we will see how they change their tactics.
Since rooting out Hamas will require broad sweeps of block-to-block fighting, I wonder whether civilians who were not associated with Hamas might begin to see Israel as invading their homeland and then the Israeli army might begin to be confronted with a hostile civilian population that begin to take up arms. Once the northern territory is eventually secured, whatever that means exactly-and it is not clear at this point what that means, then all those civilians told to head south to avoid the fighting in the north become the focus of attention. If they are prevented from entering Egypt and they receive information that many innocent civilians were killed in northern operations, how will they look at what their chances of survival mean. Hamas used social media to spread a number of false stories associated with their attack on Israel, it has to be assumed that more false stories will continue, many painting the Israeli army as an invading force that is killing and torturing civilians as they advance, and many of these stories will be believed by this mass of refugees huddled in the southern part of Gaza. A woman fleeing south with her family stated regarding Israel, “Why should we trust that they’re trying to keep us safe? They are sick.” This type of sentiment could be a spark that encourages some of the refugees in the south to take up arms. No doubt some of what Israel will say about the fighting, killing, taking of prisoners, handling of civilians, will be determined to be exaggerated or untrue and that will only add to how those civilians in the south start to assess their circumstances. There is quote that applies, “In war, truth is the first casualty.”
Third, Hamas is calling for world-wide efforts by Muslims to support their fight by joining in fighting elsewhere in the world. In New York City, the police force had leaves cancelled as they planned for violence. Several days ago, a rally took place in Times Square in support of the Palestinian people. The Hamas leader, Khaled Mashal called for a day of “anger.” While Friday’s demonstrations ended peacefully, the longer the fighting continues, the greater the destruction, the more Hamas social media misinformation is believed, the greater the likelihood of violence erupting well beyond a small strip of land in the Middle East. Unlike the Ukraine War, this war has the potential to truly be a situation where the weaponization of social media can play a role as an extension of the fighting.
I have been spending the last several months in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, a Muslim country in Central Asia. Uzbekistan is referred to as a “secular” Muslim country, where there is a separation of religion and government. While I see some women wear traditional Muslim dress, there is a great deal of Western style dress. In a clothing store last week, I saw a mannequin wearing a T-shirt that said, “Jesus loves me.” I meet university students and adults with an open mindedness and tolerance that I am sure many Americans would be surprised to hear and understand which contrasts with stereotype images many have of Muslim countries. In 2022, the Israeli embassy in Tashkent dedicated a monument to Uzbeks who gave refuge to the more than one million refugees who fled Nazi persecution during the Second World War: Of that number, several hundred thousand were Jews. The war that began with Hamas, however, has raised an awareness of Palestinians. I do not see support for Hamas, but a desire to support Palestinians. Support for Palestinians may have been there before the fighting began, but the war has only served to raise the level of consciousness. A Republican New York City Council member calling protestors supporting Palestinians “terrorists” and Senator Lindsey Graham (R, SC) calling the war a “religious war” is the type of talk that serve to enflame tensions. More than several university students, as well as adults from different walks of life I spoke with were aware of Graham’s remarks and took it as an indication of him broadly going after Muslims. In fact, Graham’s comments were brought to my attention by several people. Whatever domestic audience he thought he was appealing to with his remarks, he obviously had no concern about how his remarks are taken in Muslim countries. Foolish talk in a heighten environment of tension by prominent politicians, is not a good thing. Graham needs to think about what he says.
A good study on how social media can coordinate with actual fighting pointed to ISIS and its use of social media as it was marching on Mosul in northern Iraq in 2014. As the authors stated:
There was a choreographed social media campaign to promote [ISIS], organized by die-hard fans and amplified by an army of Twitter bots.
…In the months that followed [the fall of Mosul] ISIS’s improbable momentum continued. The group recruited over 30,000 foreigners from nearly a hundred countries to join the fight in its self-declared “caliphate.”
Hamas does not need to actually win when the ground offensive begins, just holding out for an extended period may serve the same effect as ISIS and how it recruited fighters. I expect some foreign fighters will find a way to sneak into Gaza. But Hamas and its fighting seen as defending its “homeland” has the potential to inspire violence and acts of terrorism at any number of places around the planet.
We are at the beginning of something that will be difficult to truly understand in several months. Beyond the ground offensive that will initially focus on some undefined northern sector of Gaza, will this war have the potential to become a wider war involving other countries. As Israel, the United States, and several over countries search for links to the type of role Iran played in aiding Hamas, if direct involvement is eventually determined, what that can lead to is something we all dread.
Notes
House of Commons, Foreign Affairs Committee, ’Political Islam’ and the Muslim Brotherhood Review, Sixth Report of Session 2016-17 (November 1, 2016): https:// publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmfaff/118/118.pdf
Mersiha Gadzo, Zaheena Rasheed, Lyndal Rowlands, Ted Regencia, Hamza Mohamed and Virginia Pietromarchi, “Israel-Hamas War Updates: Hamas Claims Release of Women and Children,” Aljazeera (October 10, 2023): https:// www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/10/israel-hamas-war-live-us-redoubles-israel-support-as-bombs-rain-on-gaza
Gaza Population 2023, World Population Review (no date): https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/gaza-population
Ja’han Jones, “Republicans deploy dangerous rhetoric around Israel-Hamas War,” MSNBC (October 13, 2023): https:// www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/israel-hamas-war-lindsay-graham-marco-rubio-rcna120172
Samy Magdy and Jack Jeffery, “Israeli evacuation call in Gaza hikes Egypt’s fear of a mass exodus of refugees into its territory,” Washington Post (October 13, 2023): https:// www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/13/israel-hamas-gaza-palestinians-egypt-sinai-war/9b1be80c-69cd-11ee-9753-2b3742e96987_story.html
Oliver Milman, “Major US cities step up security ahead of protests over Israeli-Hamas conflict,” The Guardian (October 13, 2023): https:// www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/13/police-security-protests-israel-hamas
“New monument in Tashkent spotlights Uzbek in saving Jews during Holocaust,” Jewish News Syndicate (June 1, 2022): https://www.jns.org/new-monument-in-tashkent-spotlights-uzbek-role-in-saving-jews-during-holocaust/
William Robertson, General Editor, and, Lawrence Yates, Managing Editor, Block by Block: The Challenges of Urban Operations (Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, U.S. Army Command and Staff College Press, 2003): https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA446541.pdf
Wafaa Shurafa and Joseph Krauss, “Palestinians stream south in Gaza as Israel urges mass evacuation and stages brief ground incursions,” (AP) y!news (October 14, 2023): https://news.yahoo.com/palestinians-flee-northern-gaza-israel-042501137.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=0_00
P.W. Singer and Emerson Brooking, LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media (Boston, An Eamon Dolan Book, Mariner Books, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2018).
Urban Warfare Training Center-Simulating the Modern Battle-Field, (October 26, 2011) https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/training-and-preparation/urban-warfare-training-center-simulating-the-modern-battle-field/