How Quickly Will Trump Lose His Popularity?
American Eclectic posts articles twice a month, on the 1st and 15th. This is the third year of publication; previously published articles can be found on my site.
January 15, 2025
He has not yet taken office, and he appears to be flying high. The terrorist bombing in New Orleans and what appears to be a terrorist bombing at a Trump Hotel in Las Vegas might give him an added boost before he takes the oath of office.
Talk radio shows that idolize Trump like to give the impression that America will be a completely different place with him in the White House. I must wonder what faithful followers believe will happen within our country and the world and when Trump will be in the White House. There is Trump, the man, the President, and there is Trump, the man who can move mountains.
I remember the Tea Party caravans that traveled the country associated with the Tea Party movement that emerged around 2009. I was doing political commentary for two TV stations in St. Louis, and a reporter and I met several of these caravans to talk with the folks in them as they parked their trailers in downtown St. Louis. We did this twice. On air, I did not want to say anything extremely negative about them; however, I had trouble understanding what they wanted precisely from either traveling around the country or from politicians who they felt had done something wrong, and they wanted those politicians, whoever they were, to somehow fix whatever problems they saw as needing immediate fixing. I had two or three minutes on TV to briefly explain what the Tea Party caravan wanted and why they were in St. Louis. I could not get on TV and say, “Well, I just spent an hour discussing politics with several members of this Tea Party caravan and why they are traveling the country, and I cannot tell you what precisely they want and what will make them happy and content. I am at a loss to figure it out. They are mad about something or many things but are all over the place in what they want done.” A TV audience does not want to hear that. I remember saying, “It is good and refreshing to see people who usually do not participate in politics take an interest in politics and be concerned about issues of importance to our country, and I am sure that with time, they will be able to participate maturely and thoughtfully in the political process and have the impact they want.” That sounded better than me scratching my head, trying to figure out what they wanted.
There was an excellent summer replacement TV show in 2016 on CBS, BrainDead (starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Tony Shalhoub, Danny Pino, and Aaron Tveit). The gist of the series was that ants from outer space arrived on earth, invaded the brains of politicians in Washington, D.C., and made them more aggressive and less willing to compromise than was already the political climate: Political polarization only increased as ants feasted on the brains of politicians. There is this scene in one episode where Winstead, who played a legislative assistant to her brother who was a senator, has a man come into her office, and the exchange goes:
LAUREL: So how can I help you, Dr. Bobb?
DR. BOBB: Oh, um… The government’s too big, don’t you think?
LAUREL: Too big?
DR. BOBB: Yes, can [your brother] make it smaller?
LAUREL: Okay. Is that it?
DR. BOBB: Yes, thanks.
This, essentially, was the level of conversation with Tea Party caravan members. What am I supposed to say on TV? “Hell! I don’t know what they want. It was all incoherent babble!”
I was a Vice President for Legislative Affairs for a medical society in St. Louis (my late wife was an OB/BYN and a board member of the organization). Since my PhD is in politics, board members assumed I could explain state legislative affairs to the members—an eye-opening experience. From meeting with state legislators and getting to know several of them quite well, I frequently heard puzzlement from legislators about what constituents or voters wanted and what they were willing to accept. Some struggled to make an honest effort to figure out what constituents wanted. One legislator told me he received letters and emails that could be completely unreadable, but he felt obligated to figure out what they wanted. I remember golfing with two Republican state senators, and one just kept getting madder the more holes we played. He kept telling me his constituents wanted cuts to state government spending. When that happened in ways they did not expect, they suddenly realized bridges in his district would not be fixed because of a lack of funds in the Department of Transportation budget. They were mad at him because those bridges would not get fixed.
In the grand scheme, voters want immigration addressed, crime reduced, government waste eliminated, homelessness eliminated, and the government made to work better. These are all very general and vague categories. They are not much different from Dr. Bobb in BrainDead, who wanted big government reduced.
It may seem that I have strayed from the question I asked in this article's title: How Quickly Will Trump Lose His Popularity? I do not see it that way. Voters who supported Trump, some because they were voting against Kamala Harris, some because they always vote for Republicans, others who were true believers, and Trump finally arrived to be their savior, all may want something, but what exactly? One way to view politics is as an activity where people want something. But wanting something is not the same as precisely knowing what you want. What will satisfy voters if they cannot clearly express their wants, and how will anyone know if they are finally happy?
I met a local government official in the suburbs of St. Louis some years ago who was quite thoughtful in how he looked at what he called “big government” and what he was willing to accept to see the federal government reduce its spending. He was willing to see toll roads in Missouri and fees to enter and enjoy state parks. He thought the state government could increase the gas tax, use the money to fix state roads and bridges and raise property taxes to address several issues, such as improving schools and modernizing public libraries—all this and more in exchange for reduced federal government spending. I seriously doubt most Trump voters think through what they want Trump to achieve in concrete ways. Somehow, the belief is that Trump will accomplish things just because he is Donald Trump. As the figure who can move mountains, Trump looms large in their thinking, not Trump, who will be President and will become hamstrung by a fragmented political system that will throw up roadblocks to limit and frustrate everything he wants to accomplish.
What do voters who see immigration as a significant threat to our country want? The attacker in New Orleans who killed 14 people and injured at least 35 was a former U.S. Army veteran who served in Afghanistan and was killed in a shootout. No doubt, this will add to anxiety about immigrants. Fox News, News Max, and OAN will point to Trump as the President who could have prevented this attack simply because he is Trump. As his presidency unwinds over its first few months, a host of talk radio shows will point to success and, in glowing terms, praise Trump to the hilt regardless of whatever he does about immigration. I expect a lot of theatrics and something that looks like action to remove some illegal immigrants, but success may be in the eye of the beholder. We cannot even figure out within a reasonable number how many illegal immigrants are in the country, so how will success be measured as far as reducing in some significant way the number of illegal immigrants in the country? Although 11 million is a convenient number that is generally accepted, it is an estimate of the percentage of legal immigrants, so some guesstimation is involved.
Sooner or later, voters, some, not all, begin to take some of their abstractions about what they want and understand that pragmatic specifics need to be developed to have a policy. Raids on meat processing plants round up a few undocumented immigrants, and that leads to them being held in some facility somewhere until it is determined whether and when they will be deported. Voters who thought in abstract terms about removing illegal immigrants from this country as one quick massive sweep and they are gone will begin to grasp that things are more challenging than they looked when Trump, as a campaigner, referred to removing illegal immigrants from the country and gave the impression some swift government action would address the issue. Suddenly, Trump and reality TV begin to look like they have no relationship to the reality of real life.
I do not expect talk radio to be much help in explaining the leap from campaigning to policy implementation to their listeners. Despite talk radio running interference for Trump, some listeners will begin to understand that to Make America Great Again, as the campaign slogan goes, will require more than was covered in a campaign stump speech. One radio host I debated some years ago on a TV show told me before we started his daily show, he always hoped someone would call in early in his show and make an outrageous statement that would set listeners off, and that was good for the next 30-45 minutes of his show. Assuming that anyone listening learned anything is debatable, although there is no doubt they ended their listening as outraged and frustrated as when they started listening. Despite the theatrics of talk radio, some of these listeners will begin to understand that some of the changes they want in the abstract might not sound all that good when specifics are addressed. This is a bright spot if you see Trump’s inauguration as a moment you did not want to see come. I believe there will be Trump voters who begin to learn and understand that campaign slogans are one thing; policy is something else.
Trump is not even president, and campaign talk of eliminating the Department of Education has shifted to what eliminating this department could mean to school districts and, more importantly, Congressional districts where Republicans represent those districts. The mythology that the Department of Education was responsible for pushing culture war issues and nothing else has given way to financial concerns about money that could be lost if this federal department is eliminated. The Department of Education is not the primary source of school district funding. However, one site places federal funding for kindergarten through high school as 8 percent of that overall funding, and another places the figure as 14 percent; in either case, federal funds matter. For example, in Texas, which is a reliable Republican state, just over 10 percent of school district funding comes from the federal government. The Department of Education is part of that source of funding, although the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Agriculture are also involved. The same applies to Florida, where federal government funds make up more than 10 percent of the money. I am sure residents in Texas and Florida will not mind having either state taxes or property taxes increase to make up the difference in lost federal funds.
The Department of Education, in particular, is in charge of Pell Grants. While Trump may have pushed to eliminate this department, some figures associated with Pell Grants indicate that many Republicans in Congress suddenly will realize that angry voters in their states will question whether to vote for them in their subsequent re-election campaigns if this program is lost. Thirty-four percent of undergraduate students nationwide receive Pell Grants; the average award was $4,491 in 2024. No doubt parents of Pell Grant recipients, some who voted for Trump and Republicans in Congress, will suddenly realize that whatever culture war issues Trump’s Presidential campaign whipped up about the Department of Education matter less than what can affect their pocketbooks. Rural education programs administered by the Department of Education might lead to layoffs in school districts or pressure to increase local taxes if this department is eliminated. No doubt rural communities will not mind since they voted for Trump, knowing he said he wanted to get rid of the Department of Education.
I used a joke in an earlier article I got from a Missouri state legislator I know well:
What do you call a government critic?
It’s someone with a driver’s license; they just don’t know where they are going.
As a retired person, will I see taxes eliminated on my Social Security when I file my 2025 tax returns because Trump campaigned on eliminating them? About 67 million households are, no doubt, waiting to see that happen—and if it does not, then what? One analyst who covers Social Security stated:
He’s talking about getting rid of the taxation, which increases the benefits, but the very benefits that are subject to taxation will be much reduced. So basically, it’s not an honest proposal.
This quote makes the simplicity of hearing that Social Security taxes will be ended much more nuanced and complex than what voters thought they were hearing.
The Motley Fool, a site online many read to understand some basics of finance, stated:
On the surface, Trump's plan sounds like an unqualified positive for retirees, many of whom are struggling with a lack of savings and Social Security's declining buying power. But there's a hidden drawback to this strategy that could hurt seniors far more than it helps them over the long run.
…Eliminating the Social Security benefit tax would take away one of only three sources of funding for the program, the others being the Social Security payroll taxes that workers pay and the interest that the program's trust funds earn.
Currently, the Social Security Trust Fund seems able to continue paying out full benefits until 2035, but if taxes on Social Security are eliminated, where will revenue be found to make up for that lost source of money going toward the trust fund? If the trust fund money is depleted, Motley Fool estimated that retirees will see their monthly Social Security checks cut by 23 percent. One estimate is that the trust fund will be exhausted by 2031, three years after the Trump Presidency ends if Social Security taxes are eliminated.
There is a cap on how much of your income you pay in the form of the Social Security withholding tax ($168,600 for 2024). Make more than that; no withholding taxes will be taken from your income. I assume all those Trump voters who voted for him because they heard his pledge to eliminate their Social Security taxes are willing to support seeing that cap increase significantly (why not make it a $500,000 cap beginning in 2025?). Who says that voters who think they are conservative will not support a tax increase—mainly if increasing the cap means they get their Social Security taxes eliminated?
I do not remember Trump addressing any complications associated with his pledge to eliminate Social Security taxes. I wonder if voters who are willing to walk across hot coals in their bare feet to show their support for Trump will stop to consider how they might or might not get those pesky taxes eliminated.
Trump’s nominee, Pete Hegseth, to be Secretary of Defense, has voiced his concerns about women in combat. Now that the campaign is over and the impact of understanding Hegseth’s views on women in the military begins to sink in, I wonder how many women who voted for Trump are grasping the abstractions of Trump and his vague comments on the military and how to look at where military policies might be headed. That gap between the abstract and the concrete, the policy implementation level, takes on a whole new perspective. A former Army captain and veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan made her position about Hegseth clear:
I would love for him [Hegseth] to look into the eyes of the loved ones of the women who were killed in action in Afghanistan and Iraq and tell them that they were not in combat or that their loved ones were not worthy of putting it all on the line or putting themselves in the line of fire to serve our country.
On December 10th of this past year, Hegseth said of women in the military that they are “some of our greatest warriors,” which was a big turnaround from a statement he made a month earlier in which he said, “I’m straight up saying we should not have women in combat roles.” Will a sudden change of principle (that may be the wrong word, but Hegseth seemed to be trying to state one) suddenly end suspicion regarding his true feelings and how he looks at women in the military? More likely, he understands political expediency and the need for Republican senators to have a reason to confirm him as Secretary of Defense, so he made a patronizing remark about women in the military.
I am sure Hegseth does not mind women in the military as long as they are in the typing pool.
Imagine if Trump had Hegseth by his side during the campaign and Hegseth expressed his views on women in combat. Picture seeing Hegseth as much as you saw Elon Musk and Robert Kennedy, Jr. during the campaign.
Steve Bannon, Trump’s manager at one point in his run-up to the 2016 election but who currently runs a podcast called “War Room,” indicated before this November’s election that the MAGA movement “is moving much further to the right than President Trump.” There will be Trump voters who fail to move from the abstract to the concrete and grasp that implementing new policies is much more complex than speaking a few sound-bite words at a campaign event. Frustration with Trump, a feeling that Trump betrayed them, will grow from within those who Bannon is describing. Some of this segment of Trump voters will explain why I expect his popularity to drop as 2025 unfolds.
Harry Truman’s final monthly approval rating at the end of his Presidency was 32 percent, Dwight Eisenhower was 59 percent, Lyndon Johnson was 49 percent, Richard Nixon was 24 percent, Gerald Ford was 53 percent, Jimmy Carter was 34 percent, Ronald Reagan was 63 percent, George H.W, Bush was 56 percent, Bill Clinton was 66 percent, George W. Bush was 34 percent, Barack Obama was 59 percent, Donald Trump at the end of his first term was at 34 percent, and Joe Biden is at 36 percent. Of 13 Presidents (John Kennedy is not included), seven left office with less than 50 percent in popularity, and Trump is among those seven. Another way to look at these figures is that six of the seven Presidents had popularity ratings in the 30s or less during their last month in office, and Trump is one of those.
Trump received slightly more than 77 million votes. Even if 6 percent (4.6 million) of these voters become disheartened with Trump by the end of 2025, his popularity rating will fall.
It is difficult to say that Trump’s grandiose visions leading up to the 2024 election are more magnificent than in 2016, but voters' expectations of him are undoubtedly high. Charlie Kirk, head of Turning Point USA, a big-time Trump supporter, added to the high expectations by stating, “a new era of American Greatness [will be] beginning.” One of the January 6th rioters who is in jail and expects Trump to pardon him stated, “we’re excited that we have our country back.” These expectations do not give the impression of supporters being tempered in their views of what will happen. High expectations go with impatience, and time to implement policies may run up against a ticking clock. The “deep state” will be a convenient scapegoat to throw around as a reason for not quickly achieving what Trump says is his mission to “restore America to greatness,” but after a while, that will wear thin.
Excuses and blaming others can only go so far. This time next year, we will see where Trump’s popularity stands. I am not expecting it to be above 50 percent, and the farther below that mark, the more I expect him to display character traits that will do nothing to help him increase his popularity. Where his popularity is rated next year might give us an idea of where it will be during the last month of his Presidency in 2028. Plan on a lot of blame being shifted away from Trump. In addition, a few hardy souls will be willing to fall on their swords for their commander-in-chief, all to help raise his ratings. I do not think it will help.
When examining Trump's popularity, the critical point to consider is his relationship with Congress. If his popularity dips (I expect it will), then that can make it difficult for him to deal with Republicans in Congress as they look ahead to the 2026 congressional elections. One study examining presidential-Congressional relations stated, “The president’s public approval provides leverage with Congress.” A drop in Trump’s popularity and his influence on Congress goes down. Republicans show eagerness to work with Trump, but cracks in that relationship will be tested as his popularity begins to take hits from supporters who expect Trump to reach for the stars and fails to achieve everything they vaguely want. I expect that Trump will disappoint many supporters because he has promised more than he can realistically achieve. Many did not vote for him to be realistic; that has been so much of his appeal.
I Could Be Wrong; Trump’s Popularity Could Take a Quick Nosedive
Things said during the heat of a Presidential campaign are one thing, but the last few weeks as Trump gets ready to take the oath of office are a different period. Americans are looking at Trump as their President, and from that perspective, what he says now in this lead-up to the inauguration can affect their opinions of how they see him as President, different from when he was the Republican candidate running for the Presidency. The talk of renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America creates an impression that the trivial and foolish matter to him. Talk of Greenland becoming some American territory adds to a belief he is willing to think casually and in flippant ways about America and its role in the world. Talk of retaking the Panama Canal and threatening Canada with the use of economic force to get something sounds like a President who lets his id take control of his thoughts, and reason and judgment are sitting in the backseat. Giving him the benefit of the doubt and saying that all this strange talk is designed to increase his bargaining power to get something he wants can sound good, or maybe it’s just a rationalization to try to gloss over foolish and strange talk. The problem is that if that is what it is, too much of this odd approach to bargaining can backfire. This type of talk adds to the expectations that Trump, the man who can move mountains, is heading to the White House, not our next President, who will need to function within a political system. Again, high expectations carry consequences where voters expect him to achieve a great deal. He is sending expectations even higher, and his fall may come sooner.
Notes
Joseph Cernik, “BrainDead: A Show that Had Something Unusual to Say about American Politics,” The Artifice (June 1, 2021): https://the-artifice.com/braindead/
Gabriella Cruz-Martinez, “Eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits could impact your finances. Here’s what you need to know,” Personal Finance Kiplinger November 6, 2024): https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/whats-wrong-with-trumps-pledge-to-repeal-taxes-on-social-security-benefits
Sara Dorn, “Hegseth Cabinet Nomination: Trump’s Pentagon Pick Will Release Accuser from NDA, Sen. Graham Says,” Forbes (December 15, 2024): https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/12/15/hegseth-cabinet-nomination-trumps-pentagon-pick-will-release-accuser-from-nda-sen-graham-says/
Aris Foley, “Social Security funds could run out in 6 years under Trump plans: Analysis,” The Hill (October 21, 2024): https://thehill.com/business/4944798-social-security-funds-could-run-out-in-6-years-under-trump-plans-analysis/
Christine Gibbs, “Presidential Success in Congress: Factors That Determine The President’s Ability To Influence Congressional Voting,” Res Publica-Journal of Undergraduate Research, Vol. 14 (2009): https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1145&&context=respublica&&sei-redir=1&referer=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%252Furl%253Fq%253Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fdigitalcommons.iwu.edu%252Fcgi%252Fviewcontent.cgi%25253Farticle%25253D1145%252526context%25253Drespublica%2526sa%253DU%2526sqi%253D2%2526ved%253D2ahUKEwiw4fLJhOCKAxWEBTQIHUR8E48QFnoECBwQAQ%2526usg%253DAOvVaw3Ug9vMVlRz6e2y7Ad3bpqP#search="https%3A%2F%2Fdigitalcommons.iwu.edu%2Fcgi%2Fviewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1145%26context%3Drespublica"
Kailey Hagen, “Donald Trump Pledged to Eliminate Social Security Benefit Taxes. Here’s Why That Could Turn Out Badly for Retirees,” The Motley Fool (December 15, 2024): https://www.fool.com/retirement/2024/12/15/donald-trump-pledged-to-eliminate-social-security/?msockid=01e3558be8e767be2788462ce9e666b8
How Is K-12 Education Funded? Peter G. Peterson Foundation (August 19, 2024): https://www.pgpf.org/article/how-is-k-12-education-funded/
How are public School Funded? USAFacts (July 21, 2023): https://usafacts.org/articles/how-are-public-schools-funded/
James LaPorta, “Women in the military worry about Hegseth’s views on women in combat,” CBS News (December 13, 2024): https://www.cbsnews.com/news/women-military-hegseth-women-combat/
Aubrey Jane McClaine, “Ranking presidents over the past 8 decades by their final approval rating,” Stacker (February 9, 2023): https://stacker.com/politics/ranking-presidents-over-past-8-decades-their-final-approval-rating
Pell Grant Statistics, Education Data Initiative (November 3, 2024): https://educationdata.org/pell-grant-statistics
Elizabeth Pritchett, “Trump says life was spared to ‘restore America to greatness’ during victory speech,” Fox News (November 6, 2024): https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-life-spared-restore-america-greatness-during-victory-speech?msockid=01e3558be8e767be2788462ce9e666b8
Austin Sarat, “The right wants revolution; the left is just going in circles,” The Hill (July 8, 2024): https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4757066-second-american-revolution-steve-bannon/
