Democrats, Watch your Language. Political Talk Matters in an Election Year
American Eclectic posts articles twice a month, on the 1st and 15th. This is the second year of publication; previously published articles can be found on my site.
January 1, 2024
Hillary Clinton had an interview in October of this past year with CNN in which she referred to some of Donald Trump’s supporters as “MAGA extremists,” and that “they take their marching orders from Donald Trump.” Clinton further added, “Maybe there needs to be a formal deprogramming of the cult members.” It led to the expected and usual reaction by Republicans, conservative commentators, and Fox News moments. The purpose of the reaction was less about Clinton and more about an opportunity to persuade listeners or those glued to their TV sets that they needed to vote Republican: Outrage, followed by the usual opportunity moment.
Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, on the heels of Hamas launching an armed assault on Israel, stated:
I think this is a great opportunity for our candidates to contrast where Republicans have stood with Israel, time and time again, and Joe Biden has been weak. And when America is weak, the world is less safe. We're seeing this not just with the war in Ukraine and with an emboldened China, but now with an attack on Israel.
McDaniel saw an opportunity to take a massacre and use it against the Biden presidency. No reason to explain how a “weak” Biden had a relationship to the massacre, just throw it out there and hope it persuaded some group of voters to use it as a reason to not vote for Biden in 2024. Worse, that she referred to rape, torture, and death as a “great opportunity” and her comments had no lasting impact against Republicans.
There is the usual collection of signs that can be found scattered around America by ordinary citizens who clearly let you know their political allegiance. For example, after the 2020 Presidential election in Boise, Idaho, someone felt the need to vent their feelings by posting signs in their front yard that read, “If Joe [Biden] only had a brain.” In Scranton, Pennsylvania when President Biden visited the area in 2021, a resident had a sign on his roof that stated, “F*** Biden,” I added the asterisk.
At an October campaign rally last year for Trump in Iowa a pastor opened the rally by preaching:
We ask that those who stand against (Trump) be put to silence. That those horrendous actions against him and his family be exposed and struck down. Give us the courage to stand with Trump.
When Trump was President, Representative Maxine Waters (D, CA), made a statement that received a great deal of attention:
If you see anybody from that cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd and you push back on them, and you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere.
Donald Trump called the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley a traitor. As Trump posted on his Truth Social site, “[Milley committed] an act so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH.” Milley called China to reassure them about the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol—in fact, the Trump Administration authorized the call. Elsewhere, Trump, like McDaniel, saw an opportunity to go after Biden after Hamas attacked Israel. Trump stated, “The atrocities we’re witnessing in Israel would never have happened if I was president.” No reason to go into any specifics on what Trump would have done to prevent the Hamas attack on Israel, just throw it out there and hope it sticks to some voters as they walk into voting booths or use drop boxes in this year’s Presidential election.
We can expect the range of these statements, mostly foolish and filled with nothing of substance, to continue and increase—it is, after all a Presidential election year. I expect these nonsense statements, in fact, to increase or get worse, although, frankly, I am not sure what that means—I just expect more of the same but wait for the really unusual statements or pronouncements to suddenly pop up. There is a numbness that comes from expecting certain types of remarks. I certainly must wonder what the pastor was thinking when he said, “be put to silence.” Was a Trump-supporting minister calling for violence or was Divine Intervention going to take a legal turn as a way to help Trump out of his numerous legal problems? In the case of Clinton’s remarks, I wonder if I can really assume that Trump supporters can be classified as “cult members.” There is a significant degree of difference in the remarks between this pastor and Clinton. At least Clinton did not hint at violence. Representative Waters making an odd comment encouraging rude behavior in public is just emblematic of a level of political discourse that seems to, unfortunately, be a new norm. In the case of McDaniel and Trump exploiting deaths for the sake of votes, with McDaniel describing a massacre as a “great opportunity,” and Trump just being his usual over-inflated self that he can solve everything, well, we are used to it, some moment of proper respect for the dead did not matter to either of them.
More of these comments as sound bite moments will, no doubt, become breaking news on Fox News. We can expect that you will be confronted with them regardless of whether it is a cable news show or some Internet site. There seems to be a proliferation in YouTube videos passing themselves off as news stations, expect them to show some level of umbrage about whatever remarks are made. A number of these sites I have looked at seem bad and it does not matter who they are for or against—most are just terrible.
There are several ways to look at the variety of comments that are made: Do they have some momentary impact on voters and potential voters—some outrage and nothing more, or do they carry a residual effect where they seem to live well beyond the moment they were uttered? Some statements, to use a common expression, go-in-one-ear-and-come-out-the-other. Other statements may have a more lasting effect. There have already been pastors who feel the need to use their status to invoke some higher power in support of Trump and do so with the complete conviction that they are entitled to do so, and, no doubt, there will be more: Religion abused for political purpose is the new normal.
In the case of Clinton calling Trump supporters cult members, I expect that will be referred to and repeated in the Republican echo chamber. In other words, all it serves to do is to re-enforce for Trump voters their support for him. In an odd way, Clinton’s remarks can come around to adversely affect Biden running for re-election. Look forward to Fox News, News Max, OAN to never let you forget Clinton’s “deplorables” made in the lead-up to the 2016 election or her more recent “cult members,” remarks. The point will not be to take aim at Clinton, but to use them to say they reflect what Biden believes—stretching comments to cover a broad range of political opponents is a time-honored tactic.
Political campaigns rely more on the emotional than the rational, more on persuasion than a well-developed set of policy proposals. The lingering effect of Clinton using the term “basket of deplorables” used in association with Trump supporters leading up to the 2016 Presidential election, stated in a September 9, 2016, speech, still seems to resonate today. Her full remarks were more nuanced, and she did not really refer to all Trump voters just some, but nuance is a word that does not go with political campaigns, simplicity does. She stated, “Just [to] be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right?” I like visiting antique malls and a number of those that I have been into have booths selling Trump items (hats, banners, etc.), and “deplorables” appear on several items—seen as a badge of honor.
It may seem like a double standard that Clinton’s remarks from 2016 and her more recent remarks will receive a great deal of attention—and can possibly have an impact on some voters, while remarks like Trump’s about Milley may not. Some of that has to do with a sense of identity. Many of Trump’s supporters seem to feel more “assaulted” or under attack—even feeling a sense of alienation that the America they knew has passed them by—nostalgia is a powerful emotion, even if used sometimes in ways removed from reality. Clinton’s remarks may create a greater sense of awareness that Democrats in general, and, by extension, Biden in particular, are attacking them.
There are Republican voters who will vote for Trump, if he is the party’s candidate, but probably will do so with a degree of regret that someone besides Trump was not the party’s candidate. A New York Times article identified six types of Republicans, with Trump supporters making up 37 percent of Republicans, 14 percent were seen as Moderate Establishment and another 26 percent as Traditional Conservatives (there are others to get to 100 percent). Beyond the 37 percent who are hard-core Trump supporters, can some of the rest be persuaded to vote for Biden, or, at least, decide to not vote for President at all (I will address undervoting as an issue in a future article). My concern is that Clinton’s remarks about Trump voters as a “cult” while focused on some segment of Republican voters, can hurt Biden in this Presidential election.
It is interesting that in the case of Clinton’s remarks about “deplorables,” it came toward the end of the 2016 campaign—the election was slightly less than two months away. One study that looked at the impact of campaign information determined that voters were more persuadable early in a campaign—and particularly if they knew less about a candidate. Trump, while known from television and occasionally appearances in various movies, was somewhat of an unknown regarding politics. Certainly, he had regularly voiced political opinions on Fox News, but he was less known than Clinton. What stands out about Clinton’s remarks is that it was directed at Trump supporters—his voters. Going back to remarks made by McDaniel, stupid and callous as they are, or Waters on how to apparently treat people in public who you do not agree with politically, or a pastor with a willingness to coat his opening remarks with a poor use of religion, or Trump saying something reprehensible about a distinguished military officer, those are different—none of these remarks was focused on a particular set of voters. Regarding the pastor uttering a foolish sentiment with religious overtones that needs to be condemned.
The study referred to in the above paragraph addressed the 2020 election. Trump was already President and more information about him was not significantly going to change voter attitudes. Biden, at the time, was more of the unknown, although he was a former Senator and Barack Obama’s vice president, voters were hearing about him as though he were the new-kid-on-the-block. The authors of the study stated:
[W]e would expect voters to have had strong prior beliefs about Donald Trump because he had been president for nearly 4 years at the time of the study and had received consistently high levels of media coverage. On the other hand, we would expect Americans to have had weaker prior beliefs about Joe Biden and to have known much less about his background, positions, and so on.
We are now in a somewhat reverse situation where it is Biden who is President, and his four years will be more familiar to voters than Trump’s Presidency. Trump as President can seem more of a distant memory to many voters, a period not as crystal-clear in the minds of many voters. Trump, I am assuming he will be the Republican candidate (although I hope not—and DeSantis is no improvement) will be able to paint a picture of the economy as having been better under him than currently under Biden.
Economic data has pointed to an economy that has been surprisingly good coming out of 2023. Low unemployment (3.8 percent based on October 2023 figures), hourly wages going up faster than inflation over the last year (4.2 percent compared to the inflation rate at 3.4 percent), the Dow Jones topping 37,000 for the first time, showed a significant turnabout from the expectations at the beginning of 2023. A Washington Post article referred to the U.S. economy ending 2023 as a “miracle” noting there were concerns a recession was likely. Despite an economy that did well, none of that may matter to voters who show a persistent pessimism about the economy.
A January 2023 Gallup Poll conveyed a sense of how Democrats, Republicans, and Independents looked at 2023 as the year began. With Biden in the White House, naturally, Democrats were more optimistic than Republicans, although Independents seemed to weigh in closer to Republican attitudes. By April, public pessimism, based on a CNBC All-America Economic Survey, only showed that there was an increase in pessimism and a drop in Biden’s popularity ratings. By the end of July, a CNN poll asked respondents how the economy was doing, and 71 percent rated it as “pretty badly/very badly.” This poll, furthermore, showed a 10-point drop in Biden’s popularity from March to July (51 percent down to 41 percent). What stood out to me in looking at this poll was that the percentage of those respondents with “no opinion” dropped from 7 percent to zero.
I started off this essay addressing political statements made in a variety of ways and come back to it here. With Biden as the President and Trump the likely challenger, whose time in the White House will probably be, at best, remembered in vague memory ways so he might be seen as closer to the new-kid-on-the-block, the economic successes Biden can point to, will be overshadowed by the pessimism voters feel about the economy. I am not sure that pointing to economic improvements (success if you want to use the term) will carry much weight among a cross-section of voters.
My bit of advice to Democrats—and probably Hillary Clinton in particular, watch how you talk in public. I addressed Clinton and a remark she made about Biden’s age in a previous article and now attacking voters, even Trump voters, does not help—regardless of her aiming her remarks at a hard-core group of Trump voters. Learn how to understand Trump’s voters and try to reach at least some of them. Republicans have decided that reaching out to new voters is not going to be their approach to trying to win elections—they feel perfectly content to alter how Americans vote to ensure their voters show up at the polls and increase hurdles for Democrats. Democrats need to reach out—particularly focusing on rural areas that are so dependent on government financial help in the form of food stamps, health care, and agricultural subsidies. No one will hear you if you begin with the notion of first attacking them. Clinton’s remarks on Trump’s voters will be used to go after all Democrats and Biden in particular.
Christine Todd Whitman, former governor of New Jersey and former Administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) between 2001 and 2003 during the George W. Bush Presidency expressed concern about her party, the Republican Party in a 2006 book, It’s My Party Too: The Battle for the Heart of the GOP and the Future of America. Well before Trump, the Republican Party was already moving in the direction of disenfranchising Republicans who did not fit a category that now can be identified as the MAGA base. Trump’s determination to only reach the already converted and not cast a wider net to embrace voters can be his downfall—but remarks, like those Clinton made, will not help.
A recent poll by the Center for Rural Strategies suggested there are rural votes who are swing voters and not an insignificant number. As a report on the poll stated:
The findings provide a potential new and more effective roadmap for candidates vying for seats in state legislatures, Congress, and the White House ahead of the 2024 elections. The survey suggests as many as 37% of rural voters are swing, blue-collar voters who could be swayed by the right policy proposals and messaging.
While partisanship remains strong among the rural electorate, voters were aligned on many of their chief concerns: affordable housing, the high cost of food, and corporate greed.
Democrats treating this as no-big-deal need to change their thinking and their presence in that part of America they often neglect. The Biden administration has addressed policies aimed at farming communities, broadly at rural America. I am not certain any of those messages stated by way of a White House press release or briefly mentioned by Biden as he speaks to an urban crowd matter all that much.
This is looking like an election that will be won by small margin differences. Joe Biden, get up and move and drag your wife along: Visit small-town America. Tell Hillary Clinton her remarks are not helping you. Talk on rural radio stations. Visit farms, visit farmers markets, visit farm cooperatives and do it now.
America has two political parties that look at elections differently: Republicans making comments made with no thought aimed at expanding their voter base do not require Democrats to respond in a tit-for-tat way. Just realize that Trump called a Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff a traitor and it will have no adverse impact on voters planning to vote for him. Democrats, in contrast, need to think in terms of chipping away and gaining a few Republican voters at a time. I addressed this in an earlier essay (Look More Closely at Rural America and What is Usually Thought of as the Core of Donald Trump’s Supporters—There is More There than Meets the Eye). I see hope that Democrats can make in-roads into parts of what might be thought of as Trump’s America but is not his and should not be seen as his. Denigrating remarks aimed at voters Democrats can and should aim to reach, however, are not helpful.
Notes
Paul Bedard, “List: 15 Democratic attacks, assaults, threats on Republicans,” Washington Examiner (November 18, 2018): https:// www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/list-15-democratic-attacks-assaults-threats-on-republicans
Megan Brenan, “Americans Largely Pessimistic About U.S. Prospects in 2023,” Gallup (January 3, 2023): https:// news.gallup.com/poll/467528/americans-largely-pessimistic-prospects-2023.aspx
David Broockman and Joshua Kalla, “When and Why Are Campaigns’ Persuasive Effect Small? Evidence From the 2020 Presidential Election,” American Journal of Political Science (August 10, 2022): https:// onlinelibrary-wiley-com.library3.webster.edu/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12724
CNN, SSRN Redefining Research (August 3, 2023): https:// www.documentcloud.org/documents/23895856-cnn-poll-on-biden-economy-and-elections
Nate Cohn, “The 6 Kinds of Republican Voters,” New York Times (August 17, 2023): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/17/upshot/six-kinds-of-republican-voters.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Ron Flipkowski, Twitter (October 7, 2023): https:// twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1710713854756282816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1710713854756282816%7Ctwgr%5Ea08a513213edec66d1fbf928b2fca6685248775a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.meidastouch.com%2Fnews%2Fanother-bizarre-opening-prayer-at-ia-trump-rally
Brian Klaas, “Trump Floats Idea of Executing Joint Chiefs Milley,” The Atlantic (September 25, 2023): https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/trump-milley-execution-incitement-violence/675435/
Steve Liesman, “Public pessimism in the economy hits a new high, CNBC Survey shows,” CNBC (April 18, 2023): https:// www.cnbc.com/2023/04/18/public-pessimism-on-the-economy-hits-a-new-high-cnbc-survey-shows.html
Heather Long, “Opinion-There’s a reason the U.S. economy soared and others were mediocre,” Washington Post (December 29, 2023): https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/29/economy-inflation-jobs-miracle/
Ashley Parker and Carissa Wolf, “Biden’s critics hurl increasingly vulgar taunts,” Washington Post (October 23, 2021): https:// www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-vulgar-signs-chants/2021/10/22/6071836e-3122-11ec-a880-a9d8c009a0b1_story.html
Roxanne Roberts, “Hillary Clinton’s ‘deplorables’ speech shocked voters five years ago-but some feel it was prescient,” Washington Post (August 31, 2021): https:// www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2021/08/31/deplorables-basket-hillary-clinton/
Nick Robertson, “Hillary Clinton: MAGA ‘Cult members’ need ‘deprogramming.’” The Hill (October 6, 2023): https:// thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/4241678-hillary-clinton-maga-cult-members-need-deprogramming/
Mike Roe, “RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel Tells Fox News that Israel Attacks are ‘a great opportunity for our candidates’ (Video),” The Wrap (October 8, 2023): https:// www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rnc-chair-ronna-mcdaniel-tells-fox-news-that-israel-attacks-are-a-great-opportunity-for-our-candidates-video/ar-AA1hRmUI?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=56bb8ca1a7584122a33b9155df1da5f8&ei=43
Christine Todd Whitman, It’s My Party Too: The Battle for the Heart of the GOP and the Future of America (New York, Penguin Books, 2006).
Will Wright, “Rural Voters in Swing States Present Untapped Potential, New Poll Suggests,” The Daily Yonder (November 1, 2023): https://dailyyonder.com/rural-voters-in-swing-states-present-untapped-potential-new-poll-suggests/2023/11/01/